Using Bayesian hierarchical models to measure and predict the effectiveness of environmental flows for ecological responses

Abstract

Quantitative predictions of ecological responses to flow alterations are fundamental to the planning and delivery of environmental water. However, the majority of such predictions are often based on expert opinion, and lack a solid basis in empirical evidence. To derive evidence-based, defensible environmental flow recommendations, new approaches are required that make best use of the available data to predict ecological responses to flow alterations. In this study we use Bayesian hierarchical modelling to explore the impact of changed flow regime on terrestrial vegetation encroachment into river channels. In regulated rivers, encroachment of terrestrial vegetation into the channel is an iss..